A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Each authors two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
